Space Hazards Induced Near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms

Space Hazards Induced Near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms (SHIELDS)

Understanding, Modeling and Predicting

Our society is increasingly dependent on technologies susceptible to harmful conditions in space; e.g., Galaxy 15, a $250M telecommunication satellite in geosynchronous orbit, failed to operate in 2010 due to a space storm, and its recovery operation cost about $3.5M. Predicting space weather hazards remains a big space physics challenge due to the complex multi-scale nature of the magnetosphere. SHIELDS (Space Hazards Induced Near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms) addresses this challenge.

What we are doing...

We are addressing this challenge using a cross-Laboratory team, LANL state-of-the-art models, computational facilities and data from national security payloads.
We are developing an end-to-end model of the magnetosphere driven by the dynamic solar wind that can predict one of the most harmful space weather hazards, the spacecraft surface charging environment (SCE) and assist spacecraft design and hazard mitigation.

The primary SCE source is the low-energy (10s of keV) hot plasma injected from the magnetotail into the inner magnetosphere during substorms (magnetospheric reconfiguration events). Our SHIELDS framework specifies the dynamics of the hot particles (the seed population for the radiation belts) on both macro- and micro-scale, including substorms and plasma waves that accelerate particles to relativistic energies.

New data assimilation techniques employing data from LANL instruments on Van Allen Probes and geosynchronous satellites are being applied for the first time to the global model. This research provides a framework for understanding the near-Earth space environment where operational satellites reside. The ability to reliably distinguish between various modes of failure is critically important in anomaly resolution and forensics.

SHIELDS strengthens the Laboratory's role in Space Weather programs, an emerging area of critical importance to LANL’s Global Security Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Energy Security missions.

SHIELDS Predicting Hazards That Result From Solar Storms

The framework

The framework bridges macro- and micro-scale models, combined with data assimilation tools that:

Capture rapid particle injection and acceleration during storms/substorms
Include plasma wave generation and their feedback on the particles

Impact

This unique space weather model:

Positions LANL as a world leader in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and forensic analysis of space system failures
Advances the science-based understanding needed for the analysis and interpretation of LANL data from past and current missions (GEO, RBSP)
Advances LANL design capabilities for space-based instrumentation for national security missions
Brings Intelligence and Space Research, Computer, Computational, and Statistical
Sciences and Theoretical Divisions together to work to support the Laboratory's mission of ensuring national safety and security
Grows the space weather area; builds strategic partnerships with other agencies (DOD, NOAA, NASA, NSF, FAA), institutions (Aerospace, universities), and commercial customers (satellite operators, etc.)