Statistical Modeling of Complex Environmental Systems
Risk Analysis
Education
Ph.D., Biostatistics
University of California at Los Angeles
1984
M.A., Mathematics
University of Southern California
1967
B.S., Mathematics
University of Southern California
1965
Positions
1998 - 2001 | Scientist in Statistical Sciences Group
1995 - 1998 | Scientist, Probability Risk Assessment Group
1/1992 - 1/1995 | Project Leader for Environmental Restoration (ER) Assessments Technical Teams, Environmental Restoration Program
1985 - 1992 | Project Leader for Environmental Restoration (ER) Assessments Technical Teams, Environmental Restoration Program
Awards
Outstanding Contribution to the LANL Environmental Restoration Program Award 1993
Risk-based Prioritization for Nuclear Material Disposition, Los Alamos Awards Program 2007
Storing and Archival of Data and Statistical Analysis for Engineering Applications, Los Alamos Awards Program 2010
Predictions of Plutonium Fires Following Earthquakes, Los Alamos Awards Program 2012
Professional Societies
American Statistical Association American Society for Quality
Publications
Kelly, E. J. and Kennedy, P. L. (1993) A Dynamic State Variable Model of Mate Desertion in Cooper's Hawks. Ecology, 74, 351-366.
Kelly, E. J. (1994) Dynamic State Variable Model of Mate Desertion in Cooper's Hawks. Markov Decision Processes, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 10-13.
Kelly, E., Kramer, M., McDaniel, C., Sasser, M. K., Stack, D., Gallegos, T. (1995) Integrating Ecological Risk Assessment and Hazards Analysis: A Pilot Project for the Proposed Los Alamos Waste Treatment and Storage Facilities. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-95-2555.
Kelly, E. J., Michael, D., Campbell, K., Black, P. (1995) Environmental Restoration Data Evaluation Pilot Project – Volume 1: Managers Summary, Volume 2: Data Quality Assessment / Proposed Framework and Demonstration of the DQA Process At RFETS. RF/ER-95-0074.UN, June, 1995.
Kelly, E. J. (1997) Ecological Risk-Based Action Levels for Cleanup of Environmental Restoration Sites. Hazardous Waste: Impacts on Human and Ecological Health, Johnson, B. L., Xintaras, C., Andrews, J. S. (eds.)., U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ATSDR, Princeton Scientific Publishing Co., Inc., 536-544.
Kelly, E. J. and Roy-Harrison, W. (1996) Ecological Impact Assessments – A Study by DOE. Environmental Regulation and Permitting, 6, 2, Winter, 47-60.
Kelly, E. J. and Roy-Harrison, W. (1998) A Mathematical Construct for Ecological Risk: A Useful Framework For Assessments. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, An International Journal, 4, 2, 229-241.
Ryti, R., Kelly, E., Hooten, M., Gonzales, G., McDermott, G., Soholt, L. (1999) Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report, LA-UR-99-1405, May 1999. (This is the guidance document for ecological risk assessment at Los Alamos National Laboratory.)
Ryti, R.T. and Kelly, E. (2000) Using Ecological Site Scoping to Evaluate Contaminant Transport Pathways. Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Recent Achievements in Environmental Fate and Transport: Ninth Volume, ASTM STP 1381, F. T. Price, K. V. Brix, and N. K. Lane, Eds. American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA, 133-146.
Reagen, D. P., Kelly, E. J., Hooten, M. M., Michael, D. I. (2000) General Assessment Endpoints for Ecological Risk Assessment at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Recent Achievements in Environmental Fate and Transport: Ninth Volume, ASTM STP 1381, F. T. Price, K. V. Brix, and N. K. Lane, Eds., American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA, 162-176.
Kelly, E. J. and Campbell, K. (2000) Separating Variability and Uncertainty – Making Choices. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 6, 1, February 2000.
Berk, R.A., Bickel, P., Campbell, K., Fovell, F., Keller-McNulty, S., Kelly, E., Linn, L., Park, B., Perelson, A., Rouphail, N., Sacks, J., Schoenberg, F. (2002) Workshop on Statistical Approaches for the Evaluation of Complex Computer Models, Statistical Science, 17, 2, 173-192.Contributor (2003) Complex Environmental Systems: Synthesis for Earth. Life, and Society in the 21st Century (A 10-Year Outlook for the National Science Foundation). NSF Advisory Committee for Environmental Research and Education.
Co-Chair (2004) 2004 Committee of Visitors Report for the Biocomplexity in the Environment Competition (2001-2003).
Kelly, E. J., Shick, M. O., Denelsbeck, J. S., Donn, J. J. (1989) Analysis and Assessment of the Effectiveness of Low-Yield, High Precision Warheads for Future Strategic Deterrence. Defense Science, 1, 1989.
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