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Richard Roy Picard

Richard Picard

Phone (505) 667-2200


  • Computational Physics and Applied Mathematics
  • Monte Carlo methods
  • Statistics
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Uncertainty analysis


Adaptive Monte Carlo techniques for computer simulation codes. 


Data analysis for nuclear forensics, arms control, and verification. 


Statistical consulting for Los Alamos plutonium facility operations (certified Six Sigma master black belt). 


Rear-real-time accounting methods for nuclear materials safeguards. 


Biosurveillance systems.



B.A., Mathematics, Carleton College

Ph.D., Applied Statistics, University of Minnesota 



LANL Positions

Member of Statistics Group since 1981. 




Salutatorian, Robbinsdale H.S. (Minn). Captain of high school and college wrestling teams. Midwest Collegiate Conference tennis champion, worked as a teaching professional for two years following college, and in more recent years have won over-the-hill singles titles at the New Mexico Open, Arizona Open, and Minnesota Open.  Also do announcing of high school sports for the local radio station, and have won New Mexico Broadcasters Association Golden Mike Award for sports play-by-play.  



According to Google Scholar, the collective citation count for the publications to follow exceeds 1000. 


``Rare Event Estimation for Computer Models,'' The American Statistician 67, 22-32, with Brian Williams (2013).   
``Quantile Estimation for Radiation Portal Monitoring,'' Technometrics  55, 94-102, with Tom Burr and Mike Hamada (2013). 
``Ensuring Finite Moments in Monte Carlo Simulations via Iterated Ex Post Facto Sampling,'' Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 79, 2106-2121, with Tom Booth (2009). 
``Computer-Aided Diagnosis with Potential Application to Rapid Detection of Disease Outbreaks,''  Statistics in Medicine 26, 1857-1874, with Tom Burr, et. al. (2007). 
``Importance Sampling for Simulation of Markovian Physical Processes,'' Technometrics 47, 202-211 (2005). 
``Accelerating Convergence in Stochastic Particle Dispersion Simulation Codes,''  Journal of Computational Physics 173, 231-255, with Mark Fitzgerald and Mike Brown (2001). 
``Exponential Convergence of Adaptive Importance Sampling for Markov Chains,'' Journal of Applied Probability 37, 342-358, with Keith Baggerly and Dennis Cox (2000).  
``Monte Carlo Transition Dynamics and Variance Reduction,'' Journal of Statistical Physics 98, 321-345, with Mark Fitzgerald and Richard Silver (2000). 
``Adaptive Importance Sampling on Discrete Markov Chains,'' Annals of Applied Probability 9, 391-412, with Craig Kollman, Keith Baggerly and Dennis Cox (1999).  
``Calibrated Seismic Verification of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty,'' Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, 293-299, with Maurice Bryson (1992).  
``Significance Tests for Saturated Orthogonal Arrays,'' Journal of Quality Technology 23, 79-89, with Ken Berk (1991).  
``Data Splitting,''  The American Statistician 44, 140-147, with Ken Berk (1990).  
``Cross-Validation of Regression Models,'' Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, 575-583, with Dennis Cook (1984).  
``Statistical Methods for Nuclear Materials Safeguards: An Overview,'' Technometrics 24, 267-294, with Aaron Goldman and Jim Shipley (1982).  
``The Influence of Substrate on the Growth and Morphology of Myriophyllum Exalbescens and Myriophyllum Spicatum,'' Canadian Journal of Botany 58, 1111-1118, with Susan Aiken (1980).