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Nathan Mark Urban

Nathan Urban

Phone (505) 665-7543


  • Climate prediction
  • Uncertainty quantification
  • Climate impacts and decision making


Ph.D. and M.Ed. in Physics, Penn State (2006) B.S. in Physics, Computer Science, and Mathematics, Virginia Tech (1997)


LANL Positions

Energy Security Fellow (Scientist), Computational Physics and Methods (CCS-2)



DOE Office of Science Early Career Research award (2013)



[Olson, R * Sriver, R * Goes, M * Urban, NM * Matthews, HD * Haran, M * Keller, K], "A climate sensitivity estimate using Bayesian fusion of instrumental observations and an Earth System model", JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol.117, D04103, FEB 21 2012.

[Sriver, R.L. * Urban, N.M. * Olson, R. * Keller, K.], "Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections", Climatic Change, Vol.115, iss.3-4, p.893-902, November 2012.

[Escarra, Matthew D. * Le, Loan T. * Urban, Nathan M. * Oppenheimer, Michael * Gmachl, Claire F.], "Quantum Cascade Laser-Based Sensing for Carbon Sequestration Leakage Monitoring", IEEE SENSORS JOURNAL, Vol.13, iss.6, p.2348-2356, JUN 2013.

[Fricker, Thomas E. * Oakley, Jeremy E. * Urban, Nathan M.], "Multivariate gaussian process emulators with nonseparable covariance structures", Technometrics, Vol.55, iss.1, p.47-56, 2013.

[Little, Christopher M. * Oppenheimer, Michael * Urban, Nathan M.], "Upper bounds on twenty-first-century Antarctic ice loss assessed using a probabilistic framework", NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol.3, iss.7, p.654-659, JUL 2013.

[Olson, R. * Sriver, R. * Chang, W. * Haran, M. * Urban, N. M. * Keller, K.], "What is the effect of unresolved internal climate variability on climate sensitivity estimates?", JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, Vol.118, iss.10, p.4348-4358, MAY 27 2013.

[Urban, Nathan M. * Holden, Philip B. * Edwards, Neil R. * Sriver, Ryan L. * Keller, Klaus], "Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol.41, iss.7, p.2543-2552, APR 16 2014.

[Xiao, Jingfeng * Davis, Kenneth J. * Urban, Nathan M. * Keller, Klaus], "Uncertainty in model parameters and regional carbon fluxes: A model-data fusion approach", AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, Vol.189, p.175-186, JUN 1 2014.