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Elchin Jafarov

Elchin Jafarov

Phone (505) 665-8183


  • Computational Physics and Applied Mathematics
  • Mathematics
  • Algorithms
  • Subsurface flow simulation
  • Applied Math
  • Statistics
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Computer and Computational Sciences
  • High performance computing
  • Earth and Space Sciences
  • Geoscience
  • Geophysics
  • Hydrology
  • Climate modeling
  • Ecosystem dynamics
  • Biogeochemistry
  • Computational Physics and Applied Mathematics
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Earth and Space Sciences
  • Inverse modeling


permafrost, snow, hydrology, earth system modeling


University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF)

  • Ph.D. in Geophysics, May 2013
  • MA in Mathematics, May 2007

Azerbaijan State Oil Academy

  • MS in Informatics, June 2003.
  • BS in Applied Mathematics, June 2001.

Vladimir E. Romanovsky, University of Alaska Fairbanks



LANL Positions

Research Associate, Computational Earth Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, September 2016 – present.

Research Associate, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder June 2015 – September 2016.

Research Associate, National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder January 2013 – May 2015.

Research Assistant, Geophysical Institute, UAF, Department of Geophysics, January 2008 – November 2012.

Professional Research Assistant, Geophysical Institute, UAF, June 2007 – December 2007.

Teaching Assistant, University of Alaska, September 2003 – May 2007.


Professional Societies




‘Science-Driven Cyberinfrastucture: Integrating permafrost data, services, and research applications’ to NSF. Lynn Yarmey (PI), Elchin Jafarov (Co-I), Kevin Schaefer (Co-I). PLR -007431505, $599,870, September 2014 to September 2017.

‘Permafrost Benchmarking System.’ Kevin Schaefer (PI), Elchin Jafarov (Co-I), Christopher Schwalm (Co-I), Marc Piper (Co-I). (Funded NASA, $200,000). September 2015 to September 2017.

‘Towards a Tiered Permafrost Modeling Cyberinfrastructure.’ Elchin Jafarov (PI), Kevin Schaefer (Co-I), Irina Overeem (Co-I), Marc Piper (Co-I), Lynn Yarmey (Co-I). PLR-1503559, $950,241, September 2015 to September 2018.

‘Impact of fire on active layer thickness.’ Kevin Schaefer (PI), Andrew Parsekian (Co-I), Sue Natali (Co-I), Elchin Jafarov (Co-I). (Funded NASA, $100,000), January 2016 to December 2017.




A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, David Lawrence, Joy Clein, Jianyang Xia, Christian Beer, Eleanor Burke, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Chen, et al., (including E. Jafarov). 2016. A model-based analysis of the vulnerability of carbon in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30, 1015-1037, doi:10.1002/2016GB005405.

Abbott, B.W.; J.B. Jones; E.A. Schuur; F.S. Chapin III; W.B. Bowden; M.S. Bret-Harte; H.E. Epstein; M.D. Flannigan; T.K. Harms; and T.N. Hollingsworth, (including E. Jafarov). 2016. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment, Environmental Research Letters. 11, 034014, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014.

Jafarov, E. and Schaefer, K.: The importance of a surface organic layer in simulating permafrost thermal and carbon dynamics, The Cryosphere, 10, 465-475, doi:10.5194/tc-10-465-2016, 2016

Chen, A., Parsekian A., Schaefer K., Jafarov E., Panda S., Liu L., Zhang T., and Zebker H: 2016. ”Ground-penetrating radar-derived measurements of active-layer thickness on the landscape scale with sparse calibration at Toolik and Happy Valley, Alaska.” GEOPHYSICS, 81(2), H1-H11. doi: 10.1190/geo2015-0124.1

Schaefer, K. and Jafarov, E.: A parameterization of respiration in frozen soils based on substrate availability, Biogeosciences Discuss., 12, 12027-12059, doi:10.5194/bgd-12-12027-2015, 2015.

Mao, J., Fu, W., Shi, X., Ricciuto, D. M., Fisher, J. B., Dickinson, R. E., Wei, Y., Shem, W., Piao, S., Wang, K., Schwalm, C. R., Tian, H., Mu, M., Arain, A., Ciais, P., Cook, R., Dai, Y., Hayes, D., Hoffman, F. M., Huang, M., Huang, S., Huntzinger, D. N., Ito, A., Jain, A., King, A. W., Lei, H., Lu, C., Michalak, A. M., Parazoo, N., Peng, C., Peng, S., Poulter, B., Schaefer, K., Jafarov, E., Thornton, P. E., Wang, W., Zeng, N., Zeng, Z., Zhao, F., Zhu, Q., and Zhu, Z.: Disentangling climatic and anthropogenic controls on global terrestrial evapotranspiration trends, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 094008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094008, 2015.

C. D. Koven, E. A. G. Schuur, C. Schädel, T. Bohn, E. J. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, P. Ciais, G. Grosse, J. W. Harden, D. J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, E. E. Jafarov, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D. M. Lawrence, A. H. MacDougall, S. S. Marchenko, A. D. McGuire, S. M. Natali, D. J. Nicolsky, D. Olefeldt, S. Peng, V. E. Romanovsky, K. M. Schaefer, J. Strauss, C. Treat, M. Turetsky: 2015. A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373: 20140423. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0423

Schaefer, K.M., Lin, L., Parsekian A., Jafarov E.E., Chen, A., Zhang T., Gusmeroli A., Zebker,. H., Schaefer. T.: 2015 "Remotely Sensed Active Layer Thickness (ReSALT) at Barrow, Alaska Using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar." Remote Sensing 7, no. 4 (2015): 3735-3759.

Lin, L., Jafarov E.E., Schaefer K.M., Jones B. M., Zebker H.A., Williams C.A., Rogan J., Zhang, T.: 2014. InSAR detects increase in surface subsidence caused by an Arctic tundra fire. GRL. doi: 10.1002/2014GL060533

Jafarov E.E., Nicolsky D.J., Romanovsky V.E., Walsh J.E., Panda S.K., Serreze M.C. 2014. The effect of snow: How to better model ground surface temperatures. Cold Regions Science and Technology, Volume 102, Pages 63-77, ISSN 0165-232X, doi: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2014.02.007.  

Jafarov, E. E., Romanovsky V. E., Genet, H., McGuire A., D., Marchenko, S. S.: The effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate, Environmental Research Letters, 8, 035030, 2013.

Jafarov, E. E., Marchenko, S. S., and Romanovsky, V. E.: Numerical modeling of permafrost dynamics in Alaska using a high spatial resolution dataset, The Cryosphere, 6, 613-624, doi:10.5194/tc-6-613-2012, 2012

In review

Jafarov E., Parsekian A., Schaefer K., Liu L., Chen, A., Panda S., Zhang T.2016: Estimating active layer thickness and volumetric water content from ground penetrating radar measurements in Barrow, Alaska. Geoscience Data Journal.

Pastick N., Duffy P., Genet H., Rupp T., Wylie B., Johnson K., Jorgenson M., Bliss N., McGuire A. D., Jafarov E., Knight J.: 2016 Historical and Projected Trends in Landscape Drivers Affecting Carbon Dynamics in Alaska.

Peckham S. D., Stoica M., Jafarov E., Endalamaw A., Bolton W. R.: 2016. Reproducible, Component-based Modeling with TopoFlow, A Spatial Hydrologic Modeling Toolkit. Earth and Space Sciences.

Other publications

Jonassen, R., Jafarov, E., Schaefer, K, Horsfall, F., and Timofeyeva, M., 2015, Achieving the NOAA Arctic action plan: The missing permafrost element, Climate Prediction S&T Digest, 39th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, St. Louis, MO, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,  p. 70-73

Panda, S.K., Schaefer, K., Liu, L., Jafarov, E., Parsekian, A.D., and Chen, A., 2015, Linking lake area change to ground subsidence in Prudhoe Bay, North Slope of Alaska. Changing Ice Newsletter.

Schaefer K.M., Lui L., Zebker H., Parsekian A., Jafarov, E., Panda S., Zhang T.: How to improve permafrost models using remote sensing. Opportunities to use remote sensing in understanding permafrost and related ecological features: Report of a Workshop, Washington D.C.: The National Academies Press, 2014, ISBN 978-0-309-30121-3

Gray, S.T., A. Bennett, W.R. Bolton, A.L. Breen, T. Carman, E. Euskirchen, H. Genet, E. Jafarov, J. Jenkins, T. Kurkowski, M. Lindgren, P. Martin, S. McAfee, A.D. McGuire, S. Marchenko, R. Muskett, S. Panda, J. Reynolds, A. Robertson, V. Romanovsky, T.S. Rupp, K. Timm, and Y. Zhang. Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative. 2015.  Using Integrated Ecosystem Modeling to Improve Our Understanding of Climate Change Impacts in the Alaska Region. Alaska Park Science – Volume 12, Issue 2

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