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Earl Christopher Lawrence



Applications of Statistics to Physics and Engineering

Uncertainty Quantification


Ph.D. Statistics, University of Michigan, 2005

B.S. Statistics, University of Michigan, 2000


LANL Positions




In Progress
1. Catanach, T., Garcia, M., Vander Wiel, S., Bent, R., Lawrence, E.  "Power System Dynamic State Estimation Using a Layered Local-Global Method''  Planned for IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
2. Casleton, E., Lawrence, E., Vander Wiel, S., Bent, R. "Bayesian Analysis of State Variables Using an Emulator.''  Planned for IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.
3. Ang, J., Bingham, D., and Lawrence, E. "A Bayesian Approach to Spatial Correlations in the Multivariate Probit Model.''  Planned for Technometrics.
4. Graves, T., Lawrence, E., Myers, K., Reese, C. S., "Ratings Using Score Histories (RUSH):  A Method for Ranking College Football Teams.''  Planned for Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.
1. Myers, K., Lawrence, E., Fugate, M., Woodring, J., Wendelberger, J., Ahrens, J.  "An In Situ Approach for Approximating Complex Computer Simulations and Identifying Important Time Steps.''  Technometrics.  In Revision 2015.
2. Bent, R., Bienstock, D., Chertkov, E., Lawrence, E., Vander Wiel, S. "Risk Constrained Optimal Power Flow for Topology Uncertainty.'' IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.  In Revision 2014.
3. Zoh, R., Wilson, A., Vander Wiel, S., Lawrence, E. "The Negative Log-Gamma Prior Distribution for Bayesian Assessment of System Reliability.'' IEEE Transactions on Reliability.  In Revision 2014.
1. Kwan, J., Heitmann, K., Habib, S., Padmanabhan, N., Lawrence, E., Finkel, H., Frontiere, N., Pope, A. "Cosmic Emulation:  Fast Predictions for the Galaxy Power Spectrum.'' The Astrophysical Journal. To Appear.
2. Garcia, M., Catanach, T., Vander Wiel, S., Bent, R., Lawrence, E.  "Line Outage Localization using Phasor Measurement Data in Transient State.''  IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.  To Appear.
3. Law, C., Bower, G., Burke-Spolaor, S., Butler, B., Lawrence, E., Lazio, T., Mattmann, C., Rupen, M., Siemion, A., Vander Wiel, S. "A Millisecond Interferometric Search for Fast Radio Bursts with the Very Large Array.'' The Astrophysical Journal. 2015.
4. Vander Wiel, S., Bent, R., Casleton, E., Lawrence, E. "Identification of topology changes in power grids using phasor measurements.'' Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. 2014.
5. Lawrence, E., Higdon, D., Walker, A., Shoemaker, M. "Estimation for Satellite Collision Probabilities Using Importance Sampling.'' Proceedings of the 24th AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanic Meeting. 2014.
6. Heitmann, K., Lawrence, E., Kwan, J., Habib, S., Higdon, D. "The Coyote Universe Extended:  Precision Emulation of the Matter Power Spectrum.'' The Astrophysical Journal. 2014.
7. Mehta, P., Walker, A., Lawrence, E., Linares, R., Higdon, D., Koller, J. "Modeling Satellite Drag Coefficients with Response Surfaces.'' Proceedings of the 2013 AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference. 2013.
8. Lawrence, E., Vander Wiel, S., Bent, R. "Model Bank State Estimation for Power Grids Using Importance Sampling.'' Technometrics. 2013
9. Higdon, D., Gattiker, J., Lawrence, E., Jackson, C., Tobis, M., Pratola, M., Habib, S., Heitmann, K., Price, S. "Computer Model Calibration Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter.'' Technometrics. 2013.
10. Higdon, D., Lawrence, E., Heitmann, K., Habib, S.  "Simulation-Aided Inference in Cosmology''  Statistical Challenges in Modern Astronomy V.  2012.
11. Higdon, D., Heitmann, K., Lawrence, E., Habib, S.  "Using the Bayesian Framework to Combine Simulations and Physical Observations for Statistical Inference.''  Large-Scale Inverse Problems and Quantification of Uncertainty.  2011.
12. Lawrence, E. and Higdon, D.  "Comment on Article by Vernon \textit{et al.''  Bayesian Analysis.  2010.
13. Lawrence, E., Heitmann, K., White, M., Higdon, D., Wagner, C., Habib, S., Williams, B.  "The Coyote Universe III:  Simulation Suite and Precision Emulator for the Nonlinear Matter Power Spectrum.''  The Astrophysical Journal.  2010.
14. Heitmann, K., Higdon, D., White, M., Habib, S., Williams, B., Lawrence, E., Wagner, C.  "The Coyote Universe II:  Cosmological Models and Precision Emulation of the Nonlinear Matter Power Spectrum.''  The Astrophysical Journal.  2009.
15. Lawrence, E., Bingham, D. R., Liu, C., Nair, V. N.  "Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Ordinal Data Using Parameter Expansion.''  Technometrics.  2008.
16. Lawrence, E., Michailidis, G., Nair, V. N.  "Statistical Inverse Problems in Active Network Tomography."  IMS Lecture Notes -- Monograph Series, Complex Datasets and Inverse Problems. Tomography, Networks and Beyond.  2007.
17. Lawrence, E., Michailidis, G., Nair, V. N.  "Comment:  Monitoring Networked Applications with Incremental Quantile Estimation.''  Statistical Science.  2006.
18. Lawrence, E., Michailidis, G., Nair, V. N. "Flexicast Delay Tomography.'' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B.  2006.
19. Lawrence, E., Michailidis, G., Nair, V. N., Xi, B.  "Network Tomography:  A Review and Recent Developments." Frontiers in Statistics.  2006.
20. Gattiker, J. R., Lawrence, E., Higdon, D.  "Analysis of Multi-Domain Complex Simulation Studies."  Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2006.  2006.
21. Lawrence, E., Michailidis, G., Nair, V. N. "Local Area Network Analysis Using End-to-End Delay Tomography." Performance Evaluation Review and Sigmetrics '05 Workshop on Large Scale Network Inference. 2005.
22. Lawrence, E., Michailidis, G., Nair, V. N. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Internal Network Link Delay Distributions Using Multicast Measurements.''  Proceedings of the 37th Conference on Information Sciences and Systems. 2003.