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David Allen Osthus

Phone (505) 665-7865


  • Statistics
  • State-space models
  • Multiscale models
  • Bayesian methods
  • Applications of statistics to disease forecasting


Ph.D. Statistics, Iowa State University, 2015

M.S. Statistics, Iowa State University, 2011

B.A. Mathematics/Statistics and Religion, Luther College, 2008


LANL Positions

Scientist (2016 - present)

Postdoctoral Researcher (2015 - 2016)

Graduate Student Summer Intern (2013, 2014, 2015)




  1. D. Osthus, K. Hickmann, P. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. Del Valle. Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model. accepted at Annals of Applied Statistics
  2. R. Priedhorsky, D. Osthus, A. Daughton, K. Moran, N. Generous, G. Fairchild, A. Deshpande, S. Del Valle. Measuring global disease with Wikipedia: Success, failure, and a research agenda. to appear at CSCW 2017

  3. K. Moran, G. Fairchild, N. Generous, K. Hickmann, D. Osthus, R. Priedhorsky, J. Hyman, S. Del Valle. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: the role of human behavior and Internet data streams in epidemic forecasting. to appear at The Journal of Infectious Diseases

  4. D. Osthus, P. C. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. K. Morley, G. D. Reeves, B. P. Weaver. (2014) Towards better empirical forecasting of radiation belt electrons and limitations on physical interpretation of predictive models. Space Weather 12 (6): 426-446.

  5. G. J. Welk, Y. Kim, B. Stanfill, D. Osthus, A. M. Calabro, S. Nusser, A. Carriquiry, (2014) Validity of 24 hour physical activity recall: Physical activity measurement survey. Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise 46 (10): 2014-2024.

  6. W. A. Fuller and D. Osthus. (2014) Properties of measures of usual daily energy expenditure. Proceedings of Statistics Canada Symposium 2014

  7. J. Crowley, B. Curley, D. Osthus. (2010) What is JEOPARDY!?: A graphical exploration from 1984-2009. Chance 23 (4): 6-14



  1. A. Loy, K. Maurer, D. Osthus. A tale of four cities: Exploring the soul of Biloxi, Detroit, Milledgeville, and State College. Computational Statistics; tentative acceptance

  2. E. Casleton, D. Osthus, K. Van Buren. Imputation for multi-source data with comparison and assessment techniques. under review at Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 


In Progress

  1. D. Osthus, P. C. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. K. Morley, G. D. Reeves, B. P. Weaver. Multiscale dynamic linear models. in preparation

  2. D. Osthus, J. Gattiker, R. Priedhorsky, S. Del Valle. Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal influenza with a domain model and conditionally specified uncertainty quantification. in preparation