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Los Alamos National Laboratory Research Quarterly, Winter 2003
Simulation Science
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Simulating a smallpox attack

(Top) The geographic distribution of people infected with smallpox 6 hours after a terrorist attack at a single building (tall bar near center) in downtown Portland, Oregon. Bar heights indicate how many people are infected at each location.

(Middle) Distribution of smallpox cases 40 days after the attack if
no mitigation efforts are made. Dark red bars mark locations at which
a fraction of infected people are also contagious.

(Bottom) Same as above except infected and contagious victims have been isolated and vaccinated. Not only are fewer people infected, but far fewer are contagious, implying that the outbreak has been contained.

 

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