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Oct. 6, 2004

Pitfalls of national security assessments

Science informs policy. Many Los Alamos scientists are called upon to make assessments of national security issues for various Washington, D.C. agencies. A recent example serves to illustrate how this process is fraught with difficulty. The technical dimensions of the problem are tricky enough. But unfortunately, technical accuracy is not enough, because various forces in government positions may see fit to misconstrue the results, as in the case of an Oak Ridge National Lab assessment of the infamous "aluminum tubes." The New York Times recently (Oct. 3, Science Section) reviewed this episode in a measure of detail and length that is extraordinary for a daily, non-technical newspaper. I highly recommend the article to the technical and policy communities here. The article can be found at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/03/international/middleeast/03tube.html online.

Scientists and managers at Los Alamos would do well to consider the implications of this incident for how we can most effectively communicate to customers in Washington, and what contingency plans to make in case the receipt of the information is less than optimal.

--Bernard Foy