Water at the intersection of science and public policy

Panelists and audience members attending a Laboratory-sponsored meeting on "Water, Drought and New Mexico" found they could agree on two things: that water is in scarce supply; and that although it's not easy, better data and accurate science-based predictions are an important ingredient to water management.

That's the goal, and a critical one, Tom Meyer, associate director for Strategic Research (ADSR) said in comments that opened the discussion last Wednesday in Santa Fe's Hilton Hotel. It was another in the Lab's special series of 60th Anniversary events.

The Laboratory is working on the question on a variety of fronts, Meyer said. Foremost is a research and development portfolio rich in its commitment to hydrologic and climate research. In addition are Lab partnerships with the state on economic development, where serious limitations can arise because of water scarcity, and partnerships with members of the power industry aimed at delivering electric power with a "net zero" increase in fresh water usage.

What's more, water has become a national security issue, Meyer said. Domestic supplies are under the Department of Homeland Security review for their potential vulnerability, and drought conditions can be flashpoints of violence in other parts of the world.

One-third of the world's surface is arid or semi-arid now, and no one knows what global warming trends will bring, said Soroosh Sorooshian, professor of hydrology at the University of Arizona and director of SAHRA – a center devoted to Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas. The Laboratory is among 15 research institutions, including University of California, Los Angeles, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, the University of New Mexico and the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, collaborating under the SAHRA center's umbrella.

Sorooshian outlined the center's work in developing accurate models for forecasting precipitation in the face of climate change, global warming, and growth in development and population. "Statistically, 98 percent of precipitation evaporates not long after it falls," he said. "It's imperative we develop accurate models that guide us in wisely using the other 2 percent."

Among the questions facing hydrologists is how long does it take to recharge an acquifer. Sorooshian said one study of sections of the Rio Grande basin suggest that ground water penetration into the acquifer measures as much as two millimeters a year – enough to support about 400,000 households – while another study measured as little as .02 millimeters – enough for just 4,000 households. "Clearly, conflicting science is useless," he said. "We need accurate predictive models before public policy and economic development planning can be effective."

Advances in creating those models are underway at the Lab, where Phil Jones of Computational Fluid Dynamics (T-3) outlined the global modeling issues he's working on.

Keeley Costigan of Atmospheric, Climate and Environmental Dynamics (EES-2) researches atmospheric climate and environmental dynamics. She demonstrated several models, including a "virtual watershed," developed to understand the effect of climate variability and land-use change in the Rio Grande basin.

Ellizabeth Keating of Hydrology, Geology and Geochemistry (EES-6) focuses on an even more concentrated area — the Española basin and the geography that incorporates Los Alamos, Española and Santa Fe. Keating described one model that shows that the Rio Grande now supplies about one-third of the water to the Buckman well field serving Santa Fe.

Of particular interest is the impact on the acquifer of the increased pumping in the Buckman and other well fields in the basin. "Our model shows a draw down of acquifer water of five to 10 meters over the last 50 years," Keating said, adding that drilling deeper wells is one answer to the area's growing water needs. "But the 10,000- to 30,000-year age of the water in the deeper parts of the acquifer means that deep taps will draw up water with increasing concentrations of naturally occurring arsenic, uranium and other contaminants."

From the state's perspective, current New Mexico policy is based in part on old science that may have been good at the time but now is in need of updating, said Paul Saavedra, director of the State Engineer's Water Rights Division. Efforts to promote wise water use through conservation and shortage-sharing have been disappointing, he said, because those factors have no provable economic incentive in a region where law and custom afford water rights according to the seniority of the rights holder.

Panelist Gary Bell of the Nature Conservancy stressed the necessity of clear science as the basis for sound policy, and he raised the question whether New Mexico can truly be defined as being in drought when the past 25 years have been among the wettest periods for the region in history.

Joining UNM economist David Brookshire and Eileen Greevey-Hillson of the New Mexico Business Alliance at the panelists' table, Public Service Co. of New Mexico's Marc Christensen described some of the steps the electric utility is taking to plan growth around a scarce water supply. "For one, we're working hard in our 'net zero' partnership with the Lab to create additional power supply without increased use of water," said Christensen.

For another, he said PNM is studying such other sources of supply as the water that gushes from gas wells when they are drilled. "It's bad and it's brackish," he said, "but when gas wells are located close enough to a power plant, found-water like this may be just right for certain industrial uses."

Additional 60th anniversary activities are scheduled periodically through the year. Schedules and general information about 60th anniversary activities are available at http://sixty.lanl.gov online. New events will be added to the event schedule frequently.

-- Bill Dupuy

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