Friday, July 11, 1997
Blast from the past: Lab scientists receive vindication
Significant events in 1979: the Shah left Iran, the Three Mile Island
reactor suffered a partial core meltdown, and a clandestine nuclear test
off the tip of South Africa was detected by an aging satellite, Vela 6911.
Two of those world events made headlines, one remained both a partial mystery and an ongoing controversy until this year.
In an April 20 article that appeared in the Israeli Ha'aretz Daily Newspaper, South African Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Pahad confirmed for the first time that a flare over the Indian Ocean detected by an American satellite in September 1979 was from a nuclear test. This statement was confirmed by the American Embassy in Pretoria, South Africa, as an accurate account of what Pahad officially acknowledged. The article said that Israel helped South Africa develop its bomb designs in return for 550 tons of raw uranium and other assistance.
Eighteen years have passed since the flash was picked up by the Vela satellite. With Pahad's revelation, Laboratory scientists say, this controversy can at last reach closure. Original analyses conducted by Lab scientists and others in the U.S. intelligence community said the flash could only be from a nuclear test. Now, their studies have been vindicated.
In 1979, the same analyses had been vigorously challenged by the Carter administration. The challenge was driven by a general mistrust in aging satellites and an unwillingness to accept the efficacy of other evidence. Instead, the Carter administration assembled a panel of scientists from academia to review the data. After their review, the panel concluded that, lacking independent collaborative data to support a nuclear origin of the signals, the original interpretation of the satellite data could not be justified.
The panel said the flash could have been caused by a combination of natural events, specifically a micrometeorite impact on the detector sunshade, followed by small particles ejected as a result of the impact. But Los Alamos scientists were not dissuaded.
"The whole federal laboratory community came to the conclusion that the data indicated a bomb," said Dave Simons of Nonproliferation and Arms Control Research and Development (NIS-RD). "But in the administration's view, because the evidence was weak, they took exception to the information and our analysis."
"It was unsettling because we were quite thoroughly convinced of our interpretation," Simons said.
The Vela satellites were deployed in support of the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963 and carried sensors designed at the Lab and Sandia National Laboratories to detect nuclear explosions in the atmosphere and in space. The satellites were launched in pairs beginning in 1963. The last and sixth pair was launched in 1970. Each satellite carried two optical sensors, called bhangmeters, to view Earth and detect atmospheric nuclear explosions associated with unique, telltale signatures of brief, intense light pulses. The satellites also carried an electromagnetic pulse sensor.
One of the problems with the Vela's optical data was that one sensor detected more light than did another, more sensitive one. The discrepancy suggested to the White House-assembled panel that the bhangmeters saw an event close at hand, perhaps sunlight glinting off a bit of meteor debris that had bounced against the satellite. The panel maintained their conclusions even though similar discrepancies had been observed in Vela signals from previous confirmed atmospheric nuclear tests.
In addition to the very bright optical signals, an atomic explosion also unleashes a pulse of radiation at radio wave frequencies which can be detected by EMP sensors. This electromagnetic pulse covers much of the radio wave spectrum.
Other radiation emitted by the blast includes gamma and beta rays and neutrons, which, in the case of a sea level or low-altitude explosion, are absorbed by the atmosphere giving rise to electromagnetic radiation at frequencies extending over the entire range from radio waves to the ultraviolet. Detectors on satellites are capable of sensing at least some of these instantaneous signals, but if the radiation is missed in the first instant, then they are gone forever, traveling away from Earth at the speed of light.
Although its optical sensors were still functioning, the Vela satellite that detected the 1979 blast was operating beyond its seven-year life span. Because of the satellite's age, the EMP sensor was not operating.
After the detection of the September 1979 event, the United States government quickly launched a major effort to collect corroborating evidence that focused on finding radioactive bomb fission products in the environment. But the sampling attempts never entered the low pressure air mass that had been over the location of the time of the explosion. While low levels of iodine-131, a short-lived radioactive fission product, were detected in sheep thyroids in western Australia, these results were also questioned.
In addition to detection satellites, the United States maintains a global network for detecting other atomic explosion phenomena, including sound waves, seismic shock waves traveling through Earth, and hydroacoustic pulses traversing Earth's oceans. Of these, the best data were from the hydroacoustic signals collected on devices called hydrophones. The hydrophone data indicated signals both from a direct path and from a reflection of the Antarctic's Scotia Ridge. Analyses of these signals conducted by the Naval Research Laboratory confirmed that they had been generated at a time and location consistent with the Vela 6911 detection and that their intensity was consistent with a small nuclear explosion on, or slightly under, the ocean's surface.
More evidence came from a Lab researcher using a radio telescope for an unrelated project in Arecibo, Puerto Rico, detected a traveling ionospheric disturbance - a ripple in Earth's upper atmosphere - moving south to north during the early morning hours of Sept. 22, 1979, something researchers had never before witnessed.
But such evidence was discounted by the White House panel.
In 1979, the South African government adamantly denied the test. Former Foreign Minister Roelof Botha said he knew nothing of the blast and suggested the American government question the Chinese or Russians. But Botha stopped short of saying that South Africa had not detonated a bomb or that the country had no intention of acquiring nuclear weapons.
The flurry over the issue exemplified American nervousness in world affairs, Botha added.
However, Lab scientists remained convinced that the flash was a nuclear detonation and invested substantial effort in analyzing the signal. Subsequently, Lab researchers published an unclassified paper describing the characteristics of optical signals caused by nuclear explosions.
In February 1980, CBS News was the first to suggest that Israel helped South Africa conduct a nuclear test. CBS received information from "informed sources," but until now, no South African government official was willing to lend the report any credibility.
Today, Lab scientists are worried that current satellites may have similar credibility problems in detecting atmospheric tests because of their ages. And for the next generation of satellites, the Pentagon has not decided whether budget cuts may affect decisions to place EMP sensors on detection satellites to be launched after the year 2000.
The Laboratory and the Department of Energy have spent nearly $50 million to develop the next generation of sensors and officials are hopeful they will be included in the payload of future satellites.
Researchers say that because the detection ability for underground and undersea tests is so good, today's rogue nations may choose to conduct clandestine atmospheric nuclear tests which is a good reason to include the EMP sensors on future satellites.
For the 1979 South African test, Los Alamos scientists are convinced that a functioning EMP detection system on the Vela satellite would have provided an unambiguous corroboration of their conclusion: the mystery optical flash of Sept. 22, 1979, was a nuclear explosion.
Ironically, researchers say, one of the most compelling recommendations of the 1979 White House panel is, today, in jeopardy of being overlooked. The panel said that because of the ramifications and possible consequences of nuclear explosions, it is imperative that systems be developed and deployed to provide prompt, reliable corroboration of the evidence.
--Kathy DeLucas
Hecker named TMS fellow
Laboratory Director Sig Hecker has been named a 1998 Fellow of the Minerals, Metals and Materials (TMS) Society.
The award -- the highest presented by TMS to its members -- is given to persons who have made outstanding contributions to the practice of metallurgy or materials science and technology.
Hecker, who came to Los Alamos as a graduate student in 1965 to study and conduct research in metallurgy and has been Laboratory director since 1986, will be honored at the society's awards dinner next February in San Antonio, Texas.
Hecker joins four others in being selected as 1998 Fellows of TMS. Also named as 1998 TMS Fellows were Ryoichi Kikuchi of the University of California, Los Angeles; Richard Arsenault of the University of Maryland; James Williams of G.E. Aircraft Engines; and Ye T. Chou of Lehigh University.
"This is probably the most sought recognition a metallurgist can obtain and the most distinctive honor," said Mike Stevens of the Center for Materials Science (MST-CMS). Stevens collaborated with Don Parkin, also of MST-CMS, on the nomination package for Hecker.
The number of TMS fellows is limited to 100 at any given time among its 12,000 worldwide membership. Hecker is the fourth Lab employee to be selected as a TMS fellow. The others are Fred Kocks, Terry Mitchell and Dave Embury, all of MST-CMS. Four TMS fellows at any one institution is a very high number, Stevens added.
"The TMS fellow is on the distinction level that the Laboratory places its Lab Fellows," Stevens continued. "His [nomination] package was based on his distinctive contributions to the understanding of metals forming, the metallurgy of plutonium and his national leadership in materials science."
--Steve Sandoval
BUS-4 Mail Services changing location
On Monday, BUS-4 Mail Services (formerly CIC-10 Mail Services) will move to the SM-30 General Warehouse. The move from the basement of the Administration Building is intended to improve mail and material deliveries.
BUS-4 Mail Services' phone number will remain the same (7-4166), but a few things have changed. BUS-4 has hired part-time students to help with sorting and the looking-up of customer names on incorrectly addressed letters. Also, a new mail-sorting facility has been set up to deliver mail more efficiently.
Deliveries and related services for unclassified mail should be unaffected while the move takes place, which should be completed that day. Those who are expecting or shipping classified material on Monday will be directly contacted with the new procedures. If you experience any problems with the mail, or if you have questions regarding the new mail delivery system, call George Valdez at 7-4166.
Lab seeks small business partners
The Laboratory's Civilian Industrial Technology (CIT) Program Office is looking for a few good business proposals.
The program office has issued under its Small Business Initiative Program a call for proposals for projects that will enhance economic growth and create new business and job opportunities in the region. Successful awards fund Laboratory employees to work with companies on technology development.
All funds for the program are for internal Laboratory use; funds are not available to the small business partner. No funding limits are placed on the proposals. Proposals that were selected for funding in previous years have ranged from $15,000 to $190,000.
This proposal cycle -- for fiscal year 1998, which begins Oct. 1 -- will be the first time that multiple-year proposals for cooperative research and development agreements, CRADAs, will be accepted.
"The Laboratory hopes to identify private-sector business enterprises that are willing to become partners," said Dave Foster, CIT's Technology Commercialization Office leader. "One objective of the program is to take a working Laboratory technology and turn it into a product that can be used by the private sector and perhaps by government. Another objective is to work in collaboration with businesses to help them resolve any technological problems that might hinder the growth and success of their businesses. In addition, we want to work with start-up companies to help them fully realize a product's potential."
CIT is seeking proposals for CRADAs with North-Central New Mexico small businesses. North-Central New Mexico for the purposes of the program is defined as the counties of Los Alamos, Mora, Rio Arriba, Santa Fe, San Miguel, Taos, San Juan, Colfax and the northern part of Sandoval county.
Since the program is funded by the Department of Energy's Defense Programs Office of Development and Technology Transfer, preference will be given to proposals that are valuable to existing or potential suppliers of materials, parts and services to the Laboratory's nuclear weapons program.
Proposals will be selected for funding after evaluators complete a business review and a technical review.
Because the primary goal of the program is to generate near-term economic development in the region, details of how a proposal will meet that goal will be the most important selection factor in the review process. The technical merit of the proposal and its contributions to the Laboratory's core mission also are key factors for selection. Incomplete product and market information will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a proposal to get funded.
For complete guidelines or for more information on the program, contact Sue Fenimore in the CIT Program Office at 5-5376. Companies interested in working with the Laboratory need to contact Fenimore by July 16; wherever possible, Fenimore will link these companies with potential Laboratory staff partners.
Proposals submitted by Laboratory staff members must be received by no later than 5 p.m. Aug. 1 at the Civilian Industrial Technology Program Office, Mail Stop C334. The fax number at the office is 5-6127; e-mail submissions can be sent to: sfenimore@lanl.gov.
CRADA proposals must follow specific guidelines, available from Fenimore.
--James E Rickman
Trujillo new deputy director of CIO
Teresa Trujillo is the new deputy director of the Laboratory's Community Involvement and Outreach (CIO) Office.
Trujillo has been at the Laboratory since 1983 when she was the Lab's Small Business Liaison officer in the former Materials Management (MAT) Division.
In 1994, Trujillo moved to the Lab's former Industrial Partnership (IPO) Office where she headed the Regional Economic Development Program.
Trujillo will work out of offices on the second floor of the J. Robert Oppenheimer Study Center.
"We're absolutely delighted to have her join our team. Her many years of outreach and community relations experience can only strengthen the Laboratory's efforts in working with communities," said CIO Director Leroy Apodaca. Noting that the Lab is strengthening and focusing much of its effort in regional economic development for Northern New Mexico, Apodaca added, "We're also fortunate to have a person like Teresa, who brings with her years of experience in regional economic development."
Trujillo, a Taos native and Taos High School graduate, earned a bachelor's degree in sociology/psychology from the University of New Mexico in 1979. Her master's degree in public administration is also from UNM.
--Steve Sandoval
Fiesta del Valle de Española this weekend
The Laboratory and University of California Northern New Mexico office will have an information booth at the annual Fiesta del Valle de Española this weekend at Valdez Park in downtown Española.
Activities in Española begin Friday and continue through Sunday. The Fiesta del Valle de Española is sponsored by the city of Española and several corporate sponsors, including Johnson Controls World Services Inc. and Fluor-Daniel Corp.
Lab and UC staff will be available from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday to hand out information about UC and Lab programs and projects, said Sandra Martinez of the UC Northern New Mexico Office. Martinez is coordinating the Lab's involvement in the Española community event.
Martinez also said there will be drawings for T-shirts, coffee mugs, science-education-related items for children and several copies of the UC book, "In Pursuit of Ideas."
As they did last month at Festival Los Alamos, members of the Los Alamos Retiree Group will be randomly surveying fiesta goers to gauge public opinion of UC's Northern New Mexico Office.
For more information, call Martinez at 7-3232.
--Steve Sandoval
