Risk Based Decision Support

Decision Applications Division provides independent and objective support to managers needing to make critical decisions in the presence of uncertainty and to document the prudence of the resulting actions. Solving a decision problem requires an understanding of how strategic objectives and institutional values can be applied to guide the identification, selection, and execution of programmatic and operational initiatives aimed at achieving performance goals. D Division applies proven multi-criteria decision methods and tools to support this process. These methods include both qualitative and quantitative techniques that allow the decision analysis effort to be conducted with a graded approach commensurate with the scope and definition of the task.

In addition to providing a structure for evaluating the decision, D Division often provides Programmatic Risk Analysis and Institutional Analysis, which predict the performance of competing alternatives.

Biographies

• Donna Baker
• Janine Fales
• John Kindinger
• Mark McNulty
• Brian Scott
• Jennifer Smith-Nelson

Publications

• Kindinger, John P.
• Escaping the Compliance Trap
• Programmatic Risk—Completing the Enterprise Picture
• Set the Bar Higher for Project Risk Analysis
• A Systems Approach to Project Risk Management
• The Case for Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
• Risk-Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Principles for Enviromental Remediation Decision-Maiking at Department of Energy Sites
• Risk Factor Analysis—A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool
• Use of Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analysis Results for the Project Budgeting and Contingency Analysis at Los Alamos National Laboratory