Programmatic Risk Analysis

Project or programmatic risk analysis is a formal process to identify and evaluate the technical, schedule, and cost uncertainties associated with the design and implementation of large and/or complex projects.

The primary aim of the risk management program is to identify and mitigate events that might adversely affect project performance. Numerous examples are available, especially within the Department of Energy (DOE), of projects that fail to achieve critical performance objectives established at their conception. To address this concern, a quantitative risk assessment and risk management process provides

• objective, quantitative information to allow risk-informed decisions to be made regarding the setting of project milestones and goals
• assistance in monitoring the status of the project as it proceeds, and
• evidence of compliance with LANL and DOE procedural project risk management requirements and assistance in complying with other assessment and review tasks.

Project risk assessment includes the identification of potential risk contributors, the analysis of their potential effect on project performance, and the development of qualitative and quantitative models and data that allow the potential effect of risk events on project performance to be measured and ranked for mitigation action development. The unique aspects of project risk analysis as performed by the Project/Program Risk Management team include

• the simultaneous analysis of schedule and cost performance in a single simulation model;
• the use of modern data analysis and simulation methods and tools, largely adopted to this task from the safety analysis field; and
• the conduct of the analysis by a senior-level team experienced in the design, construction, and operation of complex engineered systems.

The Project/Program Risk Management team has been quite successful in working within LANL to apply project risk analysis to internal projects. Projects supported include the W88 Pit Manufacturing and Certification, W76 Life Extension, the National Hydrotest Program, TA-18 siting alternatives evaluation, the MOX lead test assembly project, the Nuclear Materials Storage Facility Renovation Project, the CMR Replacement Project, and the Nuclear Materials Safeguards and Security Upgrades Project. In addition to continuing and expanding this base load of application work, we would like to expand beyond LANL to support the DOE, the Department of Defense, and others.

Biographies

• John Kindinger
• Janine Fales
• Mark McNulty
• Jennifer Smith-Nelson

Publications

• Kindinger, John P.
• Escaping the Compliance Trap
• Programmatic Risk - Completing the Enterprise Picture
• Set the Bar Higher for Project Risk Analysis
• A Systems Approach to Project Risk Management
• The Case for Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
• Risk-Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Principles for Enviromental Remediation Decision-Making at Department of Energy Sites
• Risk Factor Analysis - A New Qualitative Risk Management Tool
• Use of Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analysis Results for the Project Budgeting and Contingency Analysis at Los Alamos National Laboratory