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China Energy Study: Key Findings
General
•
Easy to consider China as "energy poor" despite a wealth
of raw materials
• Per capita energy consumption is one-sixth that of OECD
countries.
• Energy consumption per dollar of GDP is ten times higher
than OECD countries.
• Energy demand growing faster than supply.
• Major disconnects between available and required fuel
types.
• Domestic energy supply is almost entirely coal, while
urban consumers want clean household fuels like electricity and
natural gas.
• Growth in industry and transportation have increased demand
for oil and petroleum products, forcing China to become a net
importer.
• Consumption centers far from resources.
• Transportation infrastructure critical to energy development.
• Rail freight capacity overloaded.
Consumption
•
Energy demand is expected to increase exponentially.
• Industry will continue to dominate consumption at 60%
of total.
• Transportation fuels consumption will quadruple by 2015.
• Consumption in commercial buildings will increase seven
fold by the year 2015.
• Demand for oil will force imports of up to 8.6 million
barrels per day by 2015.
Production
• Coal will remain the dominant energy source.
• Oil and natural gas imports will increase dramatically.
• Oil imports will reach a maximum of 8.8 million barrels
per day in 2015.
• China's proposed development of electrical power industry
is financially achievable.
• Chinese domestic manufacturing capacity is insufficient
to maintain growth.
• Between $4 to $8 billion in foreign equipment will be
required annually through 2000.
US
Energy Security
•
Even with China's increased petroleum imports, world energy markets
will only grow at 2-3% per annum, and most of this growth will
be from increased demand in the US and Europe. Chinese imports
will not have a significant effect on energy markets, and therefore
will not affect US energy security.
Reports
• China's
Energy -- A Forecast to 2015
Verne W. Loose and Iain McCreary
LA-UR-96-2972 (September 1996)
Contact us for a copy or
download the following sections:
I. Summary
Download pdf (0.3 MB)
II. Energy Production Download
pdf (0.4 MB)
III. Energy Consumption Download
pdf (0.2 MB)
IV. Appendix and Bibliography Download
pdf (0.1 MB)
Check
out the presentation summarizing the findings in the China's
Energy -- A Forecast to 2015report.
Download pdf (0.6 MB)
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