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Energy Economic Studies

Electricity Policy Planning and Analysis Model
A systems dynamics model/simulation of the US Electric Utility System. This has been the main input for electricity planning for the US national energy plan at DOE.

Los Alamos Coal and Utility Modeling System
A linear programming model of the entire nation's electricity production sector. It was done for DOE to evaluate where coal would be burned so that emission profiles for the country could be developed. This included the whole coal/rail network with shipping feasibilities, costs, bottlenecks, expansion potential, etc. An associated study included a game theoretic model of western coal producing states vs. the two principal monopoly railroads moving the coal.

Quantitative Effects of Nuclear Licensing Reform
An application of Monte-Carlo methods to electric power plant construction models using actual data from all plants in the country to show effects on time and cost of various regulatory changes, with particular emphasis on utility financial impacts.

Other Engineering and Economic Studies
Los Alamos economists routinely support dozens of engineering studies evaluating new energy and environmental technologies. Cost-benefit analyses are carried out to evaluate technical potential and comparative strengths of new technologies and their proposed applications. Survey, interview, and decision theoretical techniques are used in addition to cost and impact metrics. A sample of the technologies that have recently been studied include:

Advanced diesel-power units
Circulating fluidized-bed industrial boilers
Coal, nuclear, hydro, wood, geothermal, and other electric generators
Compressed natural gas vehicles
Conehead penetrometers
Energy vulnerability analyses
Fuel-cell powered buses
Hydrogen powered vehicles and their supporting infrastructure
In-situ air stripping of organic contaminants
Mass spectrometer - field pollutant evaluations
Space nuclear reactors

Domestic Energy Economic Reports:

• Clean Coal Technology Diffusion: The Impact of Electric Industry Restructuring
Verne Loose
The Electricity Journal, Vol. 11, No. 10, pp. 51-58 (December 1998)

• Scale Economies and Reliability in the Electric Power Industry
H. S. Burness, R. G. Cummings, and Verne W. Loose
The Energy Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1 (1985)

• Development Planning and Management in Petroleum Reservoirs Using Tank Models and Nonlinear Programming
James W. McFarland, Leon Lasdon, and Verne Loose
Operations Research, Vol. 32, No. 2 (March-April 1984)

• The Economics of Utility Oil and Gas Substitution: National and Region-Specific Analysis
Verne W. Loose, et. al.
LA-9677-MS (February 1983)
Download 2.4 Mb pdf

• Air Quality Implications of a Nuclear Moratorium: An Alternative Analysis
Anthony Bopp, Verne Loose, Charles Kolstad, and Robert Pendley
The Energy Journal, Vol. 2, No. 3 (1981)

• Water Supply and Demand in an Energy Supply Model
David Abbey and Verne Loose
US Department of Energy report DOE-EV-10180-2 (December 1980)
Contact NTIS for a copy

• Economies of Scale and Reliability: The Economics of Large versus Small Generating Units
Verne W. Loose and Theresa A. Flaim
Energy Systems and Policy, Vol. 4, Nos. 1 and 2 (Spring 1980)

• Some Implications of Accelerated Synthetic Fuel Development for Rocky Mountain States
Verne W. Loose
LA-8588-MS (1980)
Download 1.3 Mb pdf

• Economies of Scale, Reliability, and Generation Capacity: The Economics of Small Versus Large Electricity Generating Units
Verne W. Loose
LA-UR-79-18 (1979)
Download 0.66 Mb pdf

• The Costs of Electronuclear Fuel Production
Verne W. Loose and Theresa A. Flaim
LA-7382-MS (July 1978)
Download 0.6 Mb pdf

International Energy Economic Reports:

• Energy-Planning Assistance at Los Alamos National Laboratory
J. Clay Heskett, Steven R. Booth, and Milton G. Fonseca
LA-UR-91-4171 (December 1991)
Download 0.4 Mb pdf

• AUTOBUS - System for Analysis and Administration of Deficits in Public Transportation Buses - System Manual
Milton G. Fonseca
LA-12178-MS (August 1991)
Contact us for a copy

• INTEGRA Manual - Routines for Electronic Spreadsheet Integration (Under FRAMEWORK III)
Milton G. Fonseca
LA-12182-MS (August 1991)
Download 3.0 Mb pdf

• The Peats of Costa Rica - Volume I: Executive Summary
Gary R. Thayer
LA-11889-MS, Vol. I (January 1991)
Download 1.7 Mb pdf (English)
Download 1.8 Mb pdf (Spanish)

• The Peats of Costa Rica - Volume II: Resource Assessment
Obando, Malavassi, Ramîrez, Cohen, Raymond, and Thayer
LA-11889-MS, Vol. II (April 1991)

• Changuinola Peat Deposit of Northwest Panama - Volume I: Executive Summary
Cohen, Thayer, and Ramîrez
LA-11211-MS, Vol. I (July 1990)
Download 1.4 Mb pdf

• Changuinola Peat Deposit of Northwest Panama - Volume II: Resource Assessment
Cohen, Raymond, Ramîrez, Morales, and Ponce
LA-11211-MS, Vol. II (July 1990)
Download 6.4 Mb pdf

• Changuinola Peat Deposit of Northwest Panama - Volume III: End-use Assessment
Thayer, Williamson, and Ramîrez
LA-11211-MS, Vol. III (July 1990)
Download 6.0 Mb pdf

• Costa Rica Peat Project
William Mankinen, Erkki Korpijaakko, Boris Gelfer, and Gary Thayer
LA-UR-90-750 (March 1990)
Go to the library for a downloadable report

• An Economic Prefeasibility Study of Geothermal Energy Development at Platanares, Honduras
Linda K. Trocki
LA-11550-MS (September 1989)
Download 2.7 Mb pdf (English)
Download 3.0 Mb pdf (Spanish)

• An Energy Atlas of Five Central American Countries
Linda Trocki
LA-11205-MS (August 1988)
Download 3.6 Mb pdf (English & Spanish)

• Energy Prices and the Costa Rican Energy Planning Model (econometrics based)
Steven R. Booth and Ronald J. Sutherland
LA-UR-88-717 (March 1988)
Download 5.4 Mb pdf

• Evaluation of the St. Lucia Geothermal Resource: Engineering Investigation and Cost Estimate
J. H. Altseimer, F. J. Edeskuty, W. B. Taylor, and K. D. Williamson, Jr.
LA-10209-MS (August 1984)
Download 3.0 Mb pdf

• Evaluation of the St. Lucia Geothermal Resource
Anthony E. Burris, Linda K. Trocki, Marilyn Yeamans, and Charles Kolstad
LA-10212-MS (1984)
Download 3.7 Mb pdf

Finance

Money Flow
Los Alamos is currently applying regression analysis, data mining, and other advanced statistical modeling techniques to identify suspect patterns of money flows throughout the US for the US Treasury Department and Federal Reserve. Together with economic analysis these techniques are being integrated to develop an automated computer-based tool to identify suspicious wire transfers allegedly associated with money laundering. Outlier analysis is being applied to detect potential financial criminal activity in the banking system. Unique money/banking and interstate transportation data bases are being simultaneously applied.

Nonproliferation
New Los Alamos work is applying financial analysis to classified US Intelligence Community projects concerning foreign financial and monetary activity. The applications have to do with detecting and evaluating pecuniary activities of suspected nuclear weapons proliferators and international terrorist groups.

Privatization
TSA-4 staff acted as the Deputy for Finance on the privatization of the multi-billion dollar Hanford Tanks - Tanks Waste Remediation Program. This was the largest privatization initiative ever undertaken by the US Department of Energy requiring as much as $6 billion in initial private capital commitments. Our overall responsibility was to assure that the program strategy would meet private-market financial feasibility considerations. This involved financial modeling, and competitive market-structure analysis to support the design of business strategies for the project. The allocation of risk between the government and the potential private sector bidders was a key area of analysis where we utilized the latest private-sector financial analysis tools and current financial data.

Real Options
We have applied real options theory in a pioneering quantification of the value of management flexibility. We evaluated the option value of maintaining multiple analytical labs within the Los Alamos bioassay program. This provided management with a quantitative dollar estimate of the worth of being able to shift work from one lab to another. This flexibility value was used to demonstrate that keeping open the option to switch labs could counterbalance the extra administrative costs or potential minor cost-savings from economies-of-scale in combining analytical labs.

Industry Analyses
A number of in-depth, focused industry analyses are carried out to understand competitive reaction functions, the performance of whole industries, and the socioeconomic drivers for important consumer behavior patterns. These usually involve participation with teams of simulation software developers, advanced graphical user interface designers, and other domain experts.

American Textile Industry Partnership (AMTEX)
We are developing an industry model to understand the competitive structure from fiber production through textile milling, apparel manufacture, to retailing. The focus is on US industrial structure in an international setting and what can be done to improve our market performance. Portfolio theory is being applied to international plant and product location decisions.

Oil Tanker Market
Examined the oil tanker market looking at scrappage rates, new building rates, and influences on chartering prices. Focus was the energy security aspects of the evolving fleets ability to deliver oil to importing nations.

Market Analyses

Los Alamos Health Care Study
The information and analysis in the Los Alamos Health Care Study report indicate that the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) employee/retiree health care plans provide excellent coverage at well below average premium costs to members. LANL's health care costs have been rising at only about 60% of the rate of rise of either national insurance costs or total national health care expenditures. The University of California's (UC) stewardship of LANL's health care benefits have kept these benefits in congruence with best national employer practices while keeping cost growth below average.

Private health care services in Los Alamos County are found in far greater abundance and variety than is typical for towns of its size. Los Alamos has about 4 times the median number of physicians found in 18,000 person communities. This also brings about a corresponding unusually high abundance of medical specialist local availability. The local hospital, Los Alamos Medical Center (LAMC), by most measures of size performs many more services than is usual in comparable towns. The local physicians are well compensated on average, practice in a relatively low cost business environment, and LAMC enjoys very healthy financial margins that are 2 to 3 times greater than its peers' margins.

Impacts of Caribbean Refinery Closures
Evaluated the effects on the national economies of Caribbean Islands of closing various large offshore refineries. Understanding the socio/political instability that might result was the objective. Input/output modeling and indices of social stability were developed.

Regional Airport Market Feasibility
The New Mexico State Legislature passed a memorial during the February 1998 legislative session calling for the conduct of a study to determine the feasibility of building a regional airport in northern New Mexico. This study was carried out by the TSA-4 group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The report concludes that the commercial airline market is currently too small to justify its feasibility. The population base of 225,000 people is about half the minimum size usually required to support a regional jetport. Furthermore, the proposed service area is in a poor competitive position because it is too close to Albuquerque's airport with its low average fares and well-diversified choices of airlines and flights. The competitive market was evaluated using supply and demand demographic analysis, analytical comparisons with analogy airport situations around the US, and interviews with airline executives. All methods converged on the same result showing lack of current market feasibility.

Market Analyses Reports:

• Los Alamos Health Care Study
Robert H. Drake, Janet M. Harry, Verne W. Loose, and Donna Supulver Williams
LA-UR-01-779 (February 2001)
Download 2.7 Mb pdf

• Impacts of Caribbean Refinery Closures
Carolyn A. Mangeng and C. Ellen Smart
LA-CO-86-250 (September 1986)

• Northern New Mexico Regional Airport Market Feasibility
Robert H. Drake and Donna Supulver Williams
LA-UR-98-2495 (June 1998)
Download 0.7 Mb pdf

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