Los Alamos speaker: Home computers soon may predict the future

Contact: Jim Danneskiold, jdanneskiold@lanl.gov, (505) 667-1640 (04-002)

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LOS ALAMOS, N.M., Jan. 15, 2004 -- Soon we may have supercomputers in our homes powerful enough to predict at least some aspects of the future, and our kids already may own the ancestors of these crystal balls.

So says a Los Alamos National Laboratory computer scientist who will talk about predicting the future in four public lectures beginning next week in Los Alamos, Española, Santa Fe and Taos.

Andy White of the Laboratory's Computer and Computational Science Division will present "A History of Predicting the Future: Earth, Wind, Fire, and Computers" at 7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 21, at Duane W. Smith Auditorium of Los Alamos High School. White's talk is the latest in the Laboratory's Frontiers in Science lecture series.

The complete schedule for White's lectures, all of which start at 7:30 p.m., is as follows:

• Los Alamos - Wednesday, Jan. 21, Duane W. Smith Auditorium, Los Alamos High School;
• Santa Fe - Wednesday, Jan. 28, James A. Little Theater, New Mexico School for the Deaf;
• Española - Wednesday, Feb. 4, Center for the Arts Theater, Northern New Mexico Community College; and
• Taos - Thursday, Feb. 5, Taos Convention Center.

"We want to predict the future because we want to make good decisions, from wearing the right clothes for the weather to evacuating people from danger," White said. "My talk will examine our interest and confidence in, and our ability (or lack thereof), to predict the future."

White plans to examine the last hundred years of progress in predicting the future, emphasizing computer models of weather and wildfires.

"For some things, we have a long way to go, but for others we have achieved 'perfection,'" he said. "Long-range weather prediction is generally considered impossible, yet there are some ways to beat these odds."

More than 10 years of research by the Laboratory into how to model global climate and its effort to develop faster-than-real-time methods to predict the course of a wildfire will be part of White's talk, including the interplay between weather and fire and the state of the art in wildfire prediction. He also will explain the fundamental changes in computers that have helped make such advances possible, resulting from technological progress and changes in the marketplace.

"The next best computers may originate from a surprising source and their predecessors might be in your home today," White said.

Los Alamos has been at the frontier of electronic computing from its founding 60 years ago. Led by Nick Metropolis, Los Alamos built MANIAC, one of the first supercomputers and developed techniques to simplify the computation of physical and biological processes. Enrico Fermi and Stan Ulam performed the first computer experiments to reproduce the non-linear behavior of chemical bonds between atoms. The Laboratory's leadership in high performance computing continues to this day.

The Frontiers in Science Public Lecture Series is in an effort by Laboratory researchers to inform neighboring communities about the broad range of scientific and engineering research at the Laboratory. More information about the series and about White's talk is available at http://stb.lanl.gov/program/frontiers.shtml online.

Los Alamos National Laboratory is operated by the University of California for the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the U.S. Department of Energy and works in partnership with NNSA's Sandia and Lawrence Livermore national laboratories to support NNSA in its mission.

Los Alamos develops and applies science and technology to ensure the safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent; reduce the threat of weapons of mass destruction, proliferation and terrorism; and solve national problems in defense, energy, environment and infrastructure.

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