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Elizabeth J. Kelly

Elizabeth Kelly

Email
Phone (505) 665-0801

Expertise

Sampling / Surveillance

Data Analysis

Statistical Modeling of Complex Environmental Systems

Risk Analysis

Education

Ph.D. Biostatistics, University of California at Los Angeles, June 1984 M.A. Mathematics, University of Southern California, June 1967 B.S.  Mathematics (Magna Cum Laude), University of Southern California, June 1965

 

LANL Positions

Scientist in Statistical Sciences Group, 2001-present

Deputy Group Leader for the Statistical Sciences Group, August 1998-2001

Scientist, Probability Risk Assessment Group, 1995-1998

Project Leader for Environmental Restoration (ER) Assessments Technical Teams, Environmental Restoration Program, 1992-1995 Scientist in Statistical Sciences Group, 1985-1992

 

Professional Societies

American Statistical Association American Society for Quality

 

Awards

Outstanding Contribution to the LANL Environmental Restoration Program Award 1993

Risk-based Prioritization for Nuclear Material Disposition, Los Alamos Awards Program 2007

Storing and Archival of Data and Statistical Analysis for Engineering Applications, Los Alamos Awards Program 2010

Predictions of Plutonium Fires Following Earthquakes, Los Alamos Awards Program 2012

 

Publications

PUBLICATIONS for ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS 

  1. Kelly, E. J. and Kennedy, P. L. (1993) A Dynamic State Variable Model of Mate Desertion in Cooper's Hawks. Ecology, 74, 351-366. 
  2. Kelly, E. J.  (1994) Dynamic State Variable Model of Mate Desertion in Cooper's Hawks. Markov Decision Processes, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 10-13. 
  3. Kelly, E., Kramer, M., McDaniel, C., Sasser, M. K., Stack, D., Gallegos, T. (1995) Integrating Ecological Risk Assessment and Hazards Analysis: A Pilot Project for the Proposed Los Alamos Waste Treatment and Storage Facilities. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-95-2555. 
  4. Kelly, E. J., Michael, D., Campbell, K., Black, P. (1995) Environmental Restoration Data Evaluation Pilot Project – Volume 1: Managers Summary, Volume 2: Data Quality Assessment / Proposed Framework and Demonstration of the DQA Process At RFETS. RF/ER-95-0074.UN, June, 1995. 
  5. Kelly, E. J. (1997) Ecological Risk-Based Action Levels for Cleanup of  Environmental Restoration Sites. Hazardous Waste: Impacts on Human and Ecological Health, Johnson, B. L., Xintaras, C., Andrews, J. S. (eds.)., U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, ATSDR, Princeton Scientific Publishing Co., Inc., 536-544. 
  6. Kelly, E. J. and Roy-Harrison, W. (1996) Ecological Impact Assessments – A Study by DOE. Environmental Regulation and Permitting, 6, 2, Winter, 47-60. 
  7. Kelly, E. J. and Roy-Harrison, W. (1998) A Mathematical Construct for Ecological Risk: A Useful Framework For Assessments. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, An International Journal, 4, 2, 229-241. 
  8. Ryti, R., Kelly, E., Hooten, M., Gonzales, G., McDermott, G., Soholt, L. (1999)  Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report, LA-UR-99-1405, May 1999. (This is the guidance document for ecological risk assessment at Los Alamos National Laboratory.) 
  9. Ryti, R.T. and Kelly, E. (2000) Using Ecological Site Scoping to Evaluate Contaminant Transport Pathways. Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Recent Achievements in Environmental Fate and Transport: Ninth Volume, ASTM STP 1381, F. T. Price, K. V. Brix, and N. K. Lane, Eds. American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA, 133-146. 
  10. Reagen, D. P., Kelly, E. J., Hooten, M. M., Michael, D. I. (2000) General Assessment Endpoints for Ecological Risk Assessment at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Environmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment: Recent Achievements in Environmental Fate and Transport: Ninth Volume, ASTM STP 1381, F. T. Price, K. V. Brix, and N. K. Lane, Eds., American Society for Testing and Materials, West Conshohocken, PA, 162-176. 
  11. Kelly, E. J. and Campbell, K. (2000) Separating Variability and Uncertainty – Making Choices. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 6, 1, February 2000. 
  12. Berk, R.A., Bickel, P., Campbell, K., Fovell, F., Keller-McNulty, S., Kelly, E., Linn, L., Park, B., Perelson, A., Rouphail, N., Sacks, J., Schoenberg, F. (2002) Workshop on Statistical Approaches for the Evaluation of Complex Computer Models, Statistical Science, 17, 2, 173-192.Contributor (2003) Complex Environmental Systems: Synthesis for Earth. Life, and Society in the 21st Century (A 10-Year Outlook for the National Science Foundation). NSF Advisory Committee for Environmental Research and Education.
  13. Co-Chair (2004) 2004 Committee of Visitors Report for the Biocomplexity in the Environment Competition (2001-2003).
  14. Contributor (2002-2003) Report of the Advisory Committee for GPRA Performance Assessment. http://www.nsf.gov/od/gpra/  

OTHER PUBLICATIONS

  1. Kelly, E. J., Shick, M. O., Denelsbeck, J. S., Donn, J. J. (1989) Analysis and Assessment of the Effectiveness of Low-Yield, High Precision Warheads for Future Strategic Deterrence. Defense Science, 1, 1989. 
  2. Kelly, E. J. and Gallagher, M. A. (1990) Conventional and Nuclear Force Structure Analysis. Defense Science, 2, May. 
  3. Kelly, E. J. and Gallagher, M. A. (1990) Large Scale Conventional and Combined Nuclear and Conventional Force Structure Analysis. Proceedings of the 57th MORS Symposium, December 1990. 
  4. Kelly, E. J. and Gallagher, M. A. (1990) A Synopsis of the CTEM/AEM Methodology. PHALANX, 23, 3, September. Won the 1990 Barchi Prize for the best paper given at the 1990 MORS Symposium. 
  5. Kelly, E. J. and Cumberland, W. G. (1990) Model-Based Approach for Two-Stage Sampling when Cluster Sizes Are Unknown. Journal of Official Statistics, 6, 4, 437-449.
  6. Gallagher, M. A. and Kelly, E. J. (1991) A New Methodology for Military Force Structure Analysis. Operations Research, 39, 6, November-December. 
  7. Bingham, D., Sitter, R., Kelly, E., Moore, L., Olivas, J. D. (2008) Factorial Designs with Multiple Levels of Randomization. Statistica Sinica, 18(2), 493-513. 
  8. Kelly E. J., Peppers, L. G., Worl, L.A., McClard, J. W. (2010) Sampling Approach to Validating Safe Storage of Plutonium-Bearing Materials. Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, Winter 2010. 
  9. Yerger, L., McClard, J., Traver, L., Grim, T., Venetz, T., Kelly, E., Riley, D. (2010) Nondestructive Examination of Containers with Plutonium-bearing Materials. Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, Spring 2010. 
  10. Narlesky, J. E., Foster, L. A., Kelly, E. J., Murray IV, R. E.  (2010) Alpha-Particle-Induced Prompt Gamma-Ray Analysis of Plutonium-Bearing Materials Packaged in 3013 Containers. Journal of Nuclear Materials Management, Winter 2010.  
  11. Hamada, M. S., E. Kelly, E., T. Buxton, T. (2014)  Understanding the Rule of 7:  Statistical Properties for Various Sample Sizes. Quality Engineering, 26, 285-289.  

 

SELECTED REPORTS

  1. Kelly, E. J. and Cumberland, W. G. (1985) Prediction Approach to Multistage Sampling when Cluster Sizes Are Unknown. 1985 Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods, ASA, Alexandria, VA, 404-409. 
  2. Kelly, E. J. (1985) Safety Analysis for the Unique Signal Device and the Warhead Prearm Device of the Peacekeeper Missile. TRW report incorporated into the Nuclear Surety-Safety Design and Evaluation for Peacekeeper Missile. 
  3. Kelly, E. J., Hemphill, G. M., Beckman, R. J. (1986) IPRDS FRAC Analysis for Valves, Pumps, and Electrical Components. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-86-3447. 
  4. Hemphill, G. M., Kelly, E. J., Beckman, R. J. (1987) FRAC Analysis of SAIC ASEP Data for Pumps and Valves. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-87-89. 
  5. Kelly, E. J. and Hemphill, G. M. (1988) Estimation Techniques for Common Cause Failure Events NUREG/CR-5044. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-11179-MS. 
  6. Kelly, E. and Picard, R. (2002) Statistical Analyses of Moisture Measurement Data – A White Paper. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-02-2388.Dworzak, W., Kelly, E., Peppers, L. (2003) Integrated Surveillance Program Implementation Guide. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-03-5583.  
  7. Bingham, D., Sitter, R., Kelly, E., Moore, L., Olivas, D. (2004) A Grouping Scheme for Conducting Experiments in Several Stages. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-04-1256. 
  8. Kelly, E. J. and Olivas, D. (2004) A Metallurgical Evaluation of Plutonium Fabrication and the Potential Impact on Device Performance.  Manuscript. 
  9. Bingham, D., Sitter, R., Kelly, E., Moore, L., Olivas, D. (2004) A Grouping Scheme for Conducting Experiments in Several Stages. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-04-1256.  
  10. Dworzak, W., Kelly, E., Gillespie, O, Bielenberg, P.  (2004) Large Scale Stabilization Studies. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-04-3398.
  11. Contributor (2005) Fuel Pin Performance Database Evaluation and Analysis. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-05-0117. 
  12. Narlesky, J. E., Kelly, E. J., Foster, L. A. (2005) Calibration to Predict Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide Prompt Gamma Analysis. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-14258. 
  13. Kelly, E., Peppers, L., Veirs, K., Berg, J. (2005) 3013 Container Statistical and Judgmental Samples Selected for Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE) in FY 2005. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-05-2193.
  14. Kelly, E., McClard, J. Peppers, Stakebake, J., Venetz, T. (2005) 3013 Surveillance Sampling – The Statistical Sample. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-14185.
  15. McClard, C., Kelly E., Peppers, L., Stakebake, J., Venetz, T. (2005) Binning of 3013 Items for Field Surveillance. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-14184. 
  16. Kelly, E., Hoffman, J., Koehler, A., Smith, P. (2007) Risk-Based Prioritization for Nuclear Material Repackaging – An Approach Combining Decision and Statistical Science Techniques. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-07-6449. 
  17. Kelly, E. J. et al. (2009)  Statistical Analysis of Outer Can Leak Rate Data from Weld Lots 60, 61, and 62 (A Bayesian Approach). Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR 09-0117. This was incorporated into “Analysis and Leak Test of PFP 3013 Container”, a DOE Document, CHPRC-00112 Rev 0. 
  18. Monroe, D. C., Huzurbazar, A., Kelly, E., Wilson, A., Ceman, D., Trujillo, J., Borovina, D.  (2009) An Element of Test Fire Optimization: Detonator Reliability for Potential, Future Designs. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-09-00726. 
  19. Monroe, D., Brown, G., Kelly, E., Hemphill, G. (2009) Poster for 2010 ESC Biennial Review: Fault Trees for LANL EBW Detonators and Summary Report for the 2009 ESC Biennial Review: On the Lifetime of LANL Detonators. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-09-00279. 
  20. Peppers, L., Kelly, E., McClard, J., Friday, G., Venetz, T. and Stakebade, J. (2009) Selection of 3013 Containers for Field Surveillance. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-14395 (LA-14310 Rev 1).Narlesky, J. E., Kelly, E. J., and Foster, L. A. (2009) A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis (Rev 1 LA-14258).  Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-14411. 
  21. Berg, J. M. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2008) Test Plan for Assessing Potential for Stress Corrosion Cracking in the 3013 Inner Container Closure Weld Region (FY 2014). Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-14-20785. 
  22. Peppers, L. G. et al. including Kelly, E. J.  (2010) LANL Response to SRS Requirement G-ESR-G-00035 Item 11 Bed Temperature Requirements, Revision 2. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-10-01069.
  23. Kelly, E. J. J and Yerger, L. (2010) Analysis of Pressurized Measurements for Containers With Plutonium-Bearing Material. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-10-01124.
  24. Hemphill, G. M., Picard, R. R., Fugate, M. L., Kelly, E. J. (2010) Data Provenance and Data Set Preservation at LANL. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-10-08075. 
  25. Yactor, R. J. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2010) A Detonator Fault Tree: Birth Defects and Aging. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-10-01781. 
  26. Huzurbazar, A. V. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2010) Statistical Models To Support Assessment and Decision-Making In Stockpile Stewardship. Los Alamos National Laboratory LA-UR-10-00021. 
  27. Smith, P. H. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2011) Safety Analysis Report for Nuclear Material Packaging and Storage for the Quart-Size SAVY-4000 Containers. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-11-00042. 
  28. Sinkula, B. J. et al. including Kelly, E. (2011) Preparation and Characterization of ARIES NDA Standards MC-0007, MC-0008, MC-0009, and MC-0010. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-11-00382. 
  29. Kelly, E. et al. (2011) Selection of 3013 Containers for Field Surveillance: 2011 Update. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-11-04417. 
  30. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-11-04417. (Field Surveillance Sampling Guidance) 
  31. Duque, J. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2012) 2012 MIS Review Corrosion of Teardrop Specimens Exposed to Cerium Oxide-Chloride Salt Mixtures Surveillance Program: Corrosion Working Group. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-12-26881.
  32. Kelly, E. J. and Tell, R. N. (2012) Modeling the Number of Ignitions Following an Earthquake: Developing Prediction Limits for Overdispersed Data. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-12-01028. 
  33. Smith, P. H. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2012) Responses to Q0 Comments for Safety Analysis Report for the SAVY 4000 Container Series. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-12-00251.Duque, J. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2013) Corrosion Pit Growth on Stainless Steal Tear Drops. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-13-26005. 
  34. Smith, P. H. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2012) Safety Analysis Report for the SAVY 4000 Container Series. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-CP-12-00204. 
  35. Duque, J. G. et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2013) LANL Materials Identification and Surveillance (MIS) Working Group: Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) Studies in DOE 3013 Plutonium Long-Term Storage Containers.  Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-13-20508. 
  36. Kelly, E. J. (2013) Selection of 3013 Containers for Field Surveillance: 2013 Update. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-13-21195. 
  37. Kelly, E. J. (2013) LANL SAVY-4000 Field Surveillance Plan. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-13-20300. 
  38. Kelly, E. J. (2014) A Statistical Framework for Comparison of Predictions of Corrosion Pit Depth Growth Based on Multiple Data Sets Collected Under Different Experimental and Environmental Conditions. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-14-28129.
  39. Stone, T. A. et al. including Kelly, E. J.  (2014) LANL Implementation Plan for DOE M 441.1-1, Nuclear Material Packaging Manual. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-14-25418.Stone, T. A. et al. including Kelly, E. J.  (2014) SAVY-4000 Surveillance and Life Extension Program Fiscal Year 2013 Annual Report. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-14-21362. 
  40. Kelly, E. J. et al. (2014) LANL SAVY 4000 Surveillance Plan Update – 2014. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-14-26217.
  41. Berg, J. M.  et al. including Kelly, E. J. (2015) Technical Summary of Results of 3013 Field Surveillance and Shelf-life Studies. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-15-22285. 
  42. Major contributor (2015) Integrated Surveillance and Monitoring Program for Materials Packaged to Meet DOE-STD-3013, May 2015, AMNMS-15-0014. This provides DOE guidance. 
  43. Analysis for Comparing Historical Measurements of Parent Drums to Air Sample Measurements from WIPP. Memo CCS-6:14-050. August 21, 2014. 
  44. Kelly, E. J., et al. Analysis of Precipitation (Rain and Snow) Levels and Straight-Line Wind Speeds in Support of the 10-Year Natural Phenomena Hazards Review at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Los Alamos National Laboratory Report LA-UR-15-29420. December, 2015.
  45.  Kelly, E.J., et al. Selection of 3013 Containers for Field Surveillance - 2016 Update. Los Alamos  National Laboratory Report LA-UR-16-20007. January,